Continue Sub-Prime Mess

I sold my townhouse in 2003 for a handsome profit, purchased a newly constructed townhouse low enough that I won't realize as much of a profit if I had to sell it now, but will probably be immune from the 10 - 20% additional correction of home prices that is expected to occur in the next year or two. In other words I will probably luck out and not see my home be worth less than what I paid. Unfortunately it seems 8 million households are not as lucky.A good article is at the following link http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/02/28/beck.commentary/index.html

From now until early 2009 I predict is the time to buy if you don't have another mortgage, or have the cushion to invest. Tough times are ahead that's for sure. God help us if there is any sort of global event that occurs on top of our economic downturn.

BrianB - I tend to agree with you and would like to know what was the basis for the prediction. The article I sighted has a line in it basically to the effect that there was a short time period (2 years) from boom to bust leading up to the Great Depression and how no one could have predicted what would occur. Timing the market is extremely difficult if not impossible. I was lucky to have sold high. The same townhouse I sold 4 years ago is on the market and listing for only $9,900 more. When you deduct the amount of upgrades the new owners put into the townhouse (I've seen it since) and Realtor fees, closing costs, etc. they will loose a considerable sum of money. I'm still scratching my head on this one. What I sold it for was very reasonable for the comps and the condition of the unit.

Edie - I'll have to agree with you. Having been a real estate agent for 8 years and having sold new homes for builders for about another 6 years and having lived in NOVA since 1967; I have to say, that's just the way it's been around here. It's really interesting that you and I know and can feel the tide switching, but the newspapers apparently don't see it. I always attibuted that to the fact that the newspapers generated so much ad revenue from the real estate industry that they weren't about to upset the apple cart. Despite the market conditions, builders are going to build if they can get the money, and banks are going to lend money using the preset guidelines. Yes, I do believe that no one around here is old enough to remember all the cycles or swings in this market. Prior to this last downturn, I was saying "bubble-Bubble" for 2 years prior to when prices started fallen. One of the reasons, that you have to realize this, is due to the high number of investors that were playing flip-this-house with the builders. Once the investors cashed in their chips and left town, the hand-writting was on the wall. It always used to really bother me that you could see so many people abusing the lend-rules and tax laws when they purchased the property as if it was going to be owner occupied, scamming everyone, including the lender and then you see that the purchaser has plugged a renter into the home. Life goes on.