Reserve Studies and Quotes of Life Expectancy on big ticket items

I'm new to HOA life, but am learning fast as the new Board chair for our 95 home community in Northern CA!

One of our big ticket items is out tile roof and the underlayment for it. In looking through our reserve studies I find the following:

1 Reserve Study 2018 tile life quoted at 60 years. Homes build 1989 so life expectancy to 2049

2 Roof Inspection 2022 tile life quoted at 50 years. Home built 1989 so life expectancy 2039

3 Reserve Study Update 2022 (different Reserve Analyst Company to 2018 study) tile life expectancy 70 years. Home built 1989 to life expectancy 2059

That's a 20 year difference in estimates on tile life expectancy. Is that sloppy work, or to be expected from the reserve studies?

Help please. Sue

Visit Italy or Europe for that matter. There are homes and buildings where the tile last hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of years. What doesn't last that same period of time is the underlayment. That has to be changed out, depending on the warranty of the material, every 20-40 years. The largest cost of the project is the removal and resetting of the tile. The underlayment is cheap relative to the cost of the project.

Reality check:

-- Are you aware that typically, reserve studies base their advice for funding only on items with a life expectancy of 30 years or less?

-- Do you understand why this is?

-- Even if the reserve study projects 50-70 years in the future (for funding purposes), do you understand that all the uncertainty in guestimating ages and costs to replace other, shorter-lived items means the effects of item with 50 year estimated useful life (at present) is going to be tiny?

-- As the tiling system ages, things will become more apparent as to what the system's life expectancy is. The older the system is, the closer it is to replacement, and the more accurate the predictions of remaining life and cost will be.

-- Reserve studies are not an exact science. Yet if a HOA wants to avoid having to take a loan or imposing a large special assessment, reserve study guidance is indispensable.

-- What is the "hedge" for all the uncertainty of reserve planning? Performing them at least every five years and updating them yearly.

-- Reserve funding is a moving target. That does not mean a HOA should not aim. It just means that regular checks (as described above) of where the target is at such-and-such time should be performed.

totally normal. different people have different opinions of when something needs replaced. Our HOA spent $40K to replace prefectly good park playground gear that only neeed a few hundred dollars in paint.

I had a roofing company come tell me that my roof needed to be replaced and I waited 8 years latter till I replaced it due to a wind storm causeing actual damage.