When You Wished You // Had // Joined a HOA

I'm surprised that people keep flocking to the southwest. It's arid to start with, and the writing's been on the wall for years re: the fate of the Colorado River. And atmospheric rivers don't seen to come that far inland. Some weeks back I commented on the "wisdom" of increasing housing density where there are already serious droughts and water shortages. This is more of the same. Nobody thinks about consequences, and messages about the likelihood of these consequences are not well received.

I also wonder if the challenges of a changing climate may push HOAs and especially condos over the edge, at least in parts of the country that are most affected. HOAs/COAs are set up to handle routine property ownership issues, but their focus generally doesn't go beyond their own boundaries. For example, regulating water usage is a regional effort. HOAs deal with maintaining their own equipment and utility lines to handle the water that's coming out of the pipes - they don't have the tools to keep the water flowing when the source is drying up.

We live in interesting times.

It seems like folks in the Phoenix-Scottsdale area will be better served by surrendering to HOA life (with Phoenix and Scottsdale likely requiring HOAs for any developer's subdivision), because this means the city will try to make sure they have water. No water to home owners means no city, right?

From another article several days ago: Arizona's "groundwater law requires developers in the Phoenix area to get state certificates of assured water supplies extending out 100 years before they can build." The state said it "would not issue new certificates for the region West of Phoenix unless developers find secure water sources in addition to the local groundwater." From AzCentral.com, Jan 11, 2023:

Arizona Says Developers Lack Groundwater for Big Growth Dreams in the Desert West of Phoenix

A newly released state report on groundwater supplies under the desert west of Phoenix signals difficulty ahead for developers wishing to build hundreds of thousands of homes there.

It also signals the start of an effort by Arizona’s new governor to shore up groundwater management statewide.

Gov. Katie Hobbs released the modeling report Monday afternoon, and it shows that plans to add homes for more than 800,000 people west of the White Tank Mountains will require other water sources if they are to go forward.

The Arizona Department of Water Resources had developed the model showing inadequate water for much of the development envisioned as far-west suburbs, but had not released it during then-Gov. Doug Ducey’s term. Hobbs mentioned it during her State of the State address, along with other initiatives, including a new council dedicated to updating the state’s 1980 groundwater protection act for a new era of scarcity.

Hobbs also announced a new Governor’s Office of Resiliency, coordinating agencies, tribal governments and experts in finding land, water and energy solutions for the state.

“We must talk about the challenge of our time: Arizona’s decades-long drought, over-usage of the Colorado River, and the combined ramifications on our water supply, our forests, and our communities,” the governor said.

In the case of development on the western edges of the urban area, the information her team released makes clear that developers who own desert expanses largely in Buckeye’s planning area north of Interstate 10 and west and north of the White Tank Mountains will need more water to make their visions come true.

The report, called the Lower Hassayampa Sub-basin Groundwater Model, finds that projected growth would more than double groundwater use and put it out of balance by 15%. The state’s groundwater law requires developers in the Phoenix area to get state certificates of assured water supplies extending out 100 years before they can build.

Arizona Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke on Monday said he would not issue new certificates for the area unless developers find secure water sources in addition to the local groundwater.

'Breathing room':Buckeye adopts a plan to find more water as city rapidly expands

New homes will need new water sources
Some of the Buckeye subdivisions in the area already have certifications for homes that Buschatzke estimated number in the thousands, and that will combine to add 50,000 acre-feet of demand in a basin that already uses 123,000 acre-feet. The aquifer apparently can bear that amount, but not the 100,000 acre-foot demand that department analysts have attributed to hundreds of thousands more homes envisioned for the zone.

The Howard Hughes Corp. is a major player in the area, with 100,000 homes planned on 37,000 acres in the Teravalis development, formerly called Douglas Ranch.

The question of where developers might get the water to support such vast housing tracts has previously presented a mystery, with some developers merely saying they were confident in their prospects. The report the state released this week provides an initial answer: They won’t be finding that water solely in the aquifer below the land. Instead, they will have to find new ways of importing and possibly recycling water if they want to build out the property.

“Some of the big plans that are out there for master-planned communities will need to find other water supplies or other solutions,” Buschatzke said.

Contacted on Tuesday, Howard Hughes Corp. did not respond to an interview request, but did provide a statement from Phoenix Region President Heath Melton: “We support the Governor’s initiative to proactively manage Arizona’s future water supply and will continue to be a collaborative partner with our elected officials, civic agencies, and community stakeholders to drive forward the most modern water management and conservation techniques and help ensure a prosperous and sustainable future for the West Valley, Arizona, and the greater Southwest.”

For now, the groundwater deficiency could stall much building on the Valley’s far west side. But it also could foreshadow a push for big new infrastructure projects, such as an ocean desalination plant and pipeline proposal that a state water finance board has agreed to evaluate. That proposal, led by an Israeli company that has built or operated desalination plants around the world, would pipe water north from Mexico and through Buckeye on its way to the Central Arizona Project canal.

Other options include moving water from other areas, such as the Harquahala Valley to the west, or recycling wastewater, Buschatzke said. Those options could take years, though.

Buckeye officials sent a statement to The Arizona Republic saying they need time to study the report but will work to ensure sustainable growth: “Buckeye is committed to responsible and sustainable growth and working to ensure we have adequate water for new businesses and residents, while protecting our existing customers.”

New growth:Where will water come from for the massive community planned for Buckeye?

Arizona State University water researcher Kathleen Ferris had called for the groundwater report’s release, and on Tuesday said she was delighted that Hobbs made it public. Ferris, with the school’s Kyl Center for Water Policy, is a past director of the Department of Water Resources and helped craft the 1980 groundwater law that requires a 100-year supply for new development.

“It’s a hugely important step,” Ferris said. “As the governor said, It’s about transparency and knowledge. We should not be allowing this growth to occur when the water isn’t there.”

Ferris said she counts herself among skeptics who don’t believe a desalination plant will come online quickly. The Colorado River’s drought-reduced storage means it can’t provide excess water to soon fill the gap in groundwater supplies, either. It doesn’t mean Buckeye can’t grow, she said, but finding the water to do so won’t be cheap or easy.

She cautioned, too, that other cities with stronger water portfolios are also on the lookout to snap up new water to secure their own futures.

Beyond Buckeye, Ferris said, Hobbs is right to push for better groundwater management statewide. The 1980 law applied mostly to urban areas, leaving vast areas of rural Arizona unregulated. The whole state doesn’t necessarily need the same 100-year-supply rule, Ferris said, but groundwater users everywhere should be responsible for tracking and reporting what they use. That would help the state know when it must act to conserve stressed aquifers, as it did this winter by halting expansion of irrigated farming around Kingman.

Any effort to address rural groundwater with statewide regulations is bound to face resistance in the Arizona Legislature, where lawmakers for several years have declined to extend state regulations to areas including Kingman. Voters in Cochise County approved a limited management area in November for one groundwater basin.

Whatever happens, Ferris said, the state is due for an honest conversation about where and by how much it can grow. She hopes the governor’s announcement is the start of such a reckoning. “We just can’t have subdivisions approved (solely) on groundwater,” she said.

One advocate for updating and strengthening groundwater protections around the state says she is encouraged that Hobbs has started her administration with moves to do just that.

"We are really encouraged and grateful that water is a top priority," said Haley Paul, an Audubon Society regional policy director who co-chairs the Water for Arizona coalition.

The Hassayampa groundwater report demonstrates that Arizona needs to do something different now that it can't rely on excess Colorado River water to backfill pumped groundwater, Paul said. Following a similar finding that has led groundwater depletion to limit Pinal County growth, she said, the report is "a reality check" on unlimited growth in the desert.

Having been raised in the valley of the sun, I know the Phoenix metro area has grown substantially.

In fact, a moratorium was once placed on building south of the city for fear that Tucson and Phoenix would merge together (and that was in the 1970s).
I have no idea if that is still in play.

Since most of Arizona is Federal and reservation land over 80%, there has been a lot of growth in a very small area. Hence the depletion of resources and the increased smog. The main source of water being the Colorado River.

When I was in Phoenix last, I noticed the stupidity of allowing builders to build in the salt river bed. Although the river is typically dry, anyone who has any historical knowledge of the area knows it flows twice a year. However, politicians chose to allow the building resulting in news worthy floods. This simply shows that most politicians don't look very far into the future.

However, things are changing, Arizona HOAs: Water Use & What’s Next , and many HOAs in the area will have to deal with the changes.

Adding to this, Europe's population density is higher than in the US, so available land is at a premium. Also. based on what I saw in Germany, building standards are much different from ours - for example, my relatives' homes were built with two exterior walls, with air space in between, which makes the homes energy efficient. It also means that it will take a couple years to build a home, and the home will be much pricier relative to people's incomes than it is in the US. Finally, last time I was there, there were no 30-year mortgages - their loans were much shorter term, such as 7 years (I think longer ones are available now).

Adding it all up, compared to the US, many more people rent and much of the housing is multi-family. There are fewer HOAs as we know them (with detached homes) and more condominium or coop style housing.

Going back to the original topic of this thread (water shortages), Europe doesn't seem to be having droughts - they've been having too much rain and floods. They've also been having crazy temperature swings. This can make things tough in summer since many of the homes, at least in the more northern areas, won't have air-conditioning - they haven't needed it before now.

My wife and I decided on the area of Tuscany, it won't be a condo or in an HOA. The price is between $1M-2M and with any luck, we won't have to carry a mortgage. We are working with an agent that is also doing the most important part and that is getting permanent residency in the country. Anyone can buy a home in Italy, but it doesn't guarantee you can live there.

I don't care about climate change or politics, it was all about the people, the culture, and more importantly, the history of Europe.

can't believe those articles don't' mention the obvious solution install rain collection systems on every single roof. 11 inches a year is 1/3 what we get so no hour long showers either if you want to live in the desert.

the problem is clueless homeowners depend on centralized utilities. if you are going to make your home in the middle of a dessert you need to design it to be self suffcient.

One of my cousins lived in Ecuador for a few years and loved it - she returned to the US because she's getting older (second oldest after my mother - she's in her late 80s or early 90s, I think.)

Sadly, I have to agree that in too many cases, people will continue to behave as if the planet's natural resources are infinite. Much like HOAs who think they can get away with not having a reserve fund or they can underfund the thing (or treat it like a short-term piggy bank). The people figure they'll be long gone, having sold the house by then, and so someone else will have to deal with the problem. sooner or later, you have to face what's going on and you won't be able to run away, and then what will you do?

On the other hand, I thought I heard something on the radio this morning about California managing to capture some of the rain water from those massive downpours they've been having. Still not enough to address the drought, but there may be a way to purify it all for drinking water. As for HOAs, perhaps it's time to stop obsessing about the oh, so green lawns which require mowing, fertilizer and all that, and consider nice looking ground cover that's native to the area and nicer to the environment. Along with rain barrels that could help water gardens and keep excessive water from flooding the streets.