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Posted By SteveH35 on 06/20/2022 4:22 PM
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Cathy, I have to ask: why are you so bent on the fallacy that there's an ethical dilemma for a nonprofit corporation to invest funds in a way that could lose principal? .... snip ...
Because you're losing other people's money and they tend to get shirty about it...?
Because most people are scared of the stock market and don't want to touch it...?
Because the ones who don't think they're scared of it tend to bail at the first sign of trouble and end up losing money...?
Because you can't force future boards to stay the course, no matter how many policies and plans you come up with...?
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What period did we just go through were money markets outpaced the stock market? You mean the last six months? Admittedly, if you cherry pick a period, the stock market will inevitably decline and cash will decline less despite inflation (because your money market funds haven't earned an average of more than 0.5% for the past 12 months (and that's being generous).
Yet people who argue in favor of higher risk investing inevitably cherry pick time periods in order to prove their point. These ups and downs come about periodically and unpredictably. (See: the entire decade of the 70s.) HOAs/COAs have predictable expenses and need a predictable flow of money to pay those expenses. They are not necessarily able to ride out the ups and downs, especially when the downs are prolonged.
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Warren Buffet has been a huge fan of index investing and "buy and hold" for a long, long time. You're right, it's not magic. It's statistics.
Another misconception. Index investing does not protect you from stock market loses. You will lose exactly whatever is lost by the index you're mirroring.
What indexing does protect you from is: 1) poor stock picking skills; 2) poor buy and sell discipline; 3) the high fees and trading costs associated with actively managed investing, primarily paying the money managers.
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Let's talk about Champlain Towers while we're at it. Hyperbolic? Definitely! Let's not bury facts get buried in an avalanche of tangential bits and pieces, full of assumptions and feelings.
Yes, let's talk about Champlain Towers. This is a story of willful blindness, inadequate maintenance, and homeowners kicking the can down the road until there was no more road available. Typical homeowners in community associations, in other words. It's a story of what happens when homeowners are allowed to vote down necessary assessments. Don't like what the board is doing or saying? Replace 'em. The fact that this occurred during a period of historically unprecedented stock market returns sort of undermines your point.
You are never going to get around the realities of HOA/COA governance and investing:
* Entities with a predictable stream of expenses need a predictable stream of cash. Higher-risk investing is unpredictable except over the very long term. The leaky roof is not going to wait until the markets decide to roll in your favor.
* Inexperienced investors generally make poor decisions. They also as a group over-estimate their risk tolerance and will bail at the first sign of trouble, thus locking in their losses.
* Overly confident investors get slaughtered periodically (and the market snickers at them when it happens).
* Homeowners can replace board members whenever they like. If they don't like the current board and its investment policies, they'll replace the board with people who do things the way the homeowners want. You can argue until you're blue in the face that they just need to stay the course, but there is no way to ensure that they will do so. In fact, they almost certainly will not, and at the worst possible time.
* It doesn't matter what's achievable in theory. It only matters what you personally can achieve given the constraints you're operating under. These constraints can't be managed or magicked away because that's the nature of constraints.
With that, I'm done. People who won't learn the easy way are doomed to learn the hard way.