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Posted By EdC5 on 09/01/2018 4:42 AM
I've managed nothing but 55+ communities and that's such a common refrain. It especially applies when we're talking about reserves.
We're seeing that here, too, even though we're technically not a 55+ community (although in fact we are demographically). What are some ways to counteract that sentiment?
I saw a couple of good descriptions over the last few weeks that say reserves are not for future expenses, they're to pay for the everyday wear & tear and depreciation of current reserve items. Which is a good way to look at it but try telling that to a 75-yo couple who are faced with a $50 monthly increase spread out over the next couple of years because the painting fund is on track to be $100,000 short when it's time to paint in 3 years.
I've been having some success in talking a few board members into the need for increases now before TSHTF in 5 years. The newer people on the board who have only been here a few years are receptive to the idea because they want to preserve their relatively recent investment. The board members who have lived here for 15+ years are less accepting. We've never had a reserve study done (not required in FL), so I did one last year patterned after a few samples I found online. The numbers speak for themselves.
At the end of this year we'll have about $750k in our roof reserves. If we keep our fingers crossed and can wait another 5 years to begin re-shingling we'll be short almost $500k at the rate we're going. On top of that the tentative plan - they're very reluctant to talk about it - seems to be robbing Peter (the roof reserve) to pay Paul (the painting reserve).
Using the straight-line (component) method of reserves planning, those two items alone require a $100 a month increase next year. If we switch to the cash-flow (pooled) method my 30-year projection shows we can stay above 65% fully funded and get both the painting and roofing done by 2025 if we go up $50 a month, spread out over the next 3 years. After kicking the can down the road by underfuncing the reserves for over a decade we're running out of road. The $50 a month figure already has some running for the exits. Which I think is fine, if a little sad for some senior citizens, but pay now or pay later. If they can't afford another $50 a month now then how on earth will they be able to afford a looming $1,000 special assessment in 3 years followed by another one for $4,000 in 2024?
The clamor is LOUD from several dozen retired homeowners that they shouldn't have to contribute more now now for a million dollar re-roofing project that won't start for another 6 years.
My argument is holding water so far: the numbers speak for themselves.
If one accepts the numbers, the next question is whether to increase the full $50 per month all at once in 2019. If we spread it out over several years the fear is that future boards will decide to stop following the plan and then we'll be in a bad place again.